HWLF Financial Flash Report — August 01

Flash report · August 01 – August 09, 2026 · 1,513 orders

Cash updated Aug 11, 2026

Green — on or above target Yellow — caution, within 10% of target / cash tight Red — beyond 10% off target or below cash floor

Cash Balance · week ending Aug 9 Above floor

$134,364

▲ $34,364 above floor vs. $100,000 minimum cash floor
▲ $64,791 in the week — first close above the floor since Jul 13. Latest actual week (Aug 3–9), tied to QBO. The forecast doesn't hold it — see Tracker.

Revenue MTD · Aug 1–9 Above goal

$160,781

Weekly run-rate $125,052/wk ▲ 25.1% over goal
vs. $100,000/wk target · gross sales (product + shipping + protection)
9-day payout window · MTD ÷ 9 × 7 · flattered by a Jul 30–31 promo (932 orders settling here)

Contribution Margin Well under goal

$24,866 · 15.5%

▼ 7.5 pt under goal vs. 23.0% target
Down from 20.3% in July. Driver: discounting at 35.3% of gross (promo cohort 40.8%). Ad spend covers 1,142 placed orders vs. 1,513 payout-matched here, so this reads optimistic — like-for-like ≈13.8% SEE NOTE

Secondary metrics

AOV

$75.47

Lifetimely · blended · ▲ from $52.43 (LY)

Blended CAC

$36.36

Lifetimely · all channels · ▲ from $20.77 (LY)

Blended ROAS

2.50×

Lifetimely · MER 2.54 · ▼ from 3.10×

Fulfillment % of gross

6.1%

ShipBob ÷ gross sales

Avg Product COGS / order

$21.23

$32,124 ÷ 1,513 orders

Discounts % of gross

35.3%

$56,697 ÷ gross sales

Cash is up; unit economics went the wrong way.

Cash: $69,573 → $134,364 in a week — $109K income against only $24K of debt repayment. Margin: the Jul 30–31 promo (733 orders on Jul 31) settled into this window at a 40.8% discount rate, pulling blended discounting to 35.3% and product margin to 35.4% (43.2% in July). Acquisition: CAC $36.36 vs. $20.77 LY, ROAS 2.50× vs. 3.10×, marketing at 39% of net sales. Revenue beat the run-rate goal, but it was bought.

Financial tracker · August 01 – August 09, 2026 · 1,513 orders

Cash model updated Aug 11, 2026

Section 1 · Ending Cash — 4 actuals + 8 forecast weeks

5 of the 8 forecast weeks sit below the $100K floor and 3 go cash-negative — low point −$30,092 the week of Aug 31.

Last actual week (Aug 3–9) closed at $134,364, up $64,791 and $34,364 above the floor — first close above $100K since Jul 13, tied to QBO. The forecast peaks at $159,409 (Aug 10) then gives it back: $94,816 (Aug 17), −$30,092 (Aug 31), −$27,680 (Sep 7), $90,918 (Sep 14), −$9,421 (Sep 28). Only Aug 10, Aug 24 and Sep 21 finish above the floor.

Driver: operating cash flow is positive every forecast week (+$22.6K to +$136.8K) — the deficit is entirely debt and card repayment. Three payments do it: $147K Amex (Aug 17), $177K Shopify Credit Card (Aug 31), $150K Amex (Sep 28). Financing outflows total $600K against $716K of projected income, plus $6.5K–$15.1K of Wayflyer every week.

Ending cash by week

13-Week Cash Flow · Ending Cash · last updated August 11, 2026

Actual — solid line (4 wks) Forecast — dashed line (8 wks) $100K floor ● Green ≥ $100K ● Red below floor Weeks run Mon–Sun and are labelled by week start (e.g. "Aug 3" = Aug 3 – Aug 9)

Section 2 · Truncated P&L

Revenue	% of gross	USD
Product gross sales	93.4%	$150,188
Shipping income	5.0%	$8,118
Package protection	1.5%	$2,475
Gross sales	100%	$160,781
Cost of goods & direct costs
Discounts	35.3%	−$56,697
Product cost (COGS)	20.0%	−$32,124
Fulfillment (ShipBob) UNDERSTATED	6.1%	−$9,757
CC / merchant fees	1.9%	−$3,024
Returns PARTIAL	1.4%	−$2,278
Packaging materials GAP	—	—
Bundle SKU costs PARTIAL	—	—
Product margin	35.4%	$56,901
Marketing
Ad spend (Lifetimely actual) AUG-PLACED ORDERS	19.9%	−$32,035
Contribution margin (goal 23.0%)	15.5%	$24,866

Reading the margins: two cohorts in one window.

Every line except ad spend is the 1,513 payout-matched orders. Ad spend is Lifetimely's actual for the 1,142 orders placed Aug 1–9 — but only 581 of those settled here, so this window overstates CM (July's mismatch ran the other way).

Jul 30–31 promo — 932 orders, $107,556 gross, 40.8% discount, 30.9% product margin. August orders — 581 orders, $53,226 gross, 24.0% discount, 44.4% product margin, but ad spend at 30.6% of gross. On the August cohort alone with ad spend prorated 581/1,142, CM is $7.3K / 13.8% — the true like-for-like read. The promo bought volume cheaply on marketing and expensively on discount; August is doing the reverse. Neither clears 23%.

Section 3 · Revenue flow

How gross sales becomes contribution margin

Bands sized by dollar amount · revenue in green, costs in red/orange · contribution margin (what's left over) sits at the bottom in dark green

Month in review · July 01 – July 31, 2026 · 5,122 orders

Full month · Lifetimely + payout-matched

July grew the top line but gave back margin.

Gross sales rose to $441,267 across 5,122 payout-matched orders — an $45.6K improvement on June — but contribution margin fell from 25.9% to 20.3%, 2.7 pts short of the 23% goal. Discounting was the pressure point at 23.0% of gross, overtaking ad spend as the single largest cost line. On a like-for-like basis (grossing revenue up to the full 5,671-order Lifetimely set) CM reads ≈22.5%. Cash closed the month at $69,573, $30,427 below the floor.

Core metrics

Revenue · July Essentially at goal

$441,267

Weekly run-rate $99,641/wk ▼ 0.4% under goal
vs. $100,000/wk target · gross sales (product + shipping + protection)

Product Margin

$190,528 · 43.2%

after discounts, product COGS, fulfillment, fees & returns
before marketing · 46.1% in June

Contribution Margin Under goal

$89,669 · 20.3%

▼ 2.7 pt under goal vs. 23.0% target
after COGS, fulfillment, fees, returns & ad spend
≈22.5% on a like-for-like all-orders basis

Secondary metrics

Orders

5,122

payout-matched · July

AOV

$69.64

Lifetimely · blended · ▲ from $67.70

Blended CAC

$26.78

Lifetimely · all channels · ▼ from $27.58

Blended ROAS

3.70×

Lifetimely · MER 3.67 · ▲ from 3.66×

Fulfillment % of gross

7.8%

ShipBob ÷ gross sales

Discounts % of gross

23.0%

$101,390 ÷ gross sales

Truncated P&L

Revenue	% of gross	USD
Product gross sales	91.4%	$403,220
Shipping income	6.8%	$29,818
Package protection	1.9%	$8,229
Gross sales	100%	$441,267
Cost of goods & direct costs
Discounts	23.0%	−$101,390
Product cost (COGS)	21.9%	−$96,477
Fulfillment (ShipBob) UNDERSTATED	7.8%	−$34,633
CC / merchant fees	2.3%	−$10,084
Returns PARTIAL	1.8%	−$8,154
Packaging materials GAP	—	—
Bundle SKU costs PARTIAL	—	—
Product margin	43.2%	$190,528
Marketing
Ad spend (Lifetimely actual) ALL ORDERS	22.9%	−$100,859
Contribution margin (goal 23.0%)	20.3%	$89,669

Revenue flow

How gross sales becomes contribution margin

Bands sized by dollar amount · revenue in green, costs in red/orange · contribution margin (what's left over) sits at the bottom in dark green

Month in review · June 01 – June 30, 2026 · 4,787 orders

Full month · Lifetimely + payout-matched

June closed strong on margin but tight on cash.

Contribution margin came in at 25.9% — 2.9 pts above the 23% goal — on $395,656 of gross sales across 4,787 orders. The soft spot was liquidity: the month ended at $13,060, well below the $100K cash floor, which is what the weekly Flash Report and Tracker tabs pick up from here. Full-month order set, so the ad-spend basis mismatch that distorts short weekly windows largely washes out.

Core metrics

Revenue · June Slightly under

$395,656

Weekly run-rate $92,320/wk ▼ 7.7% under goal
vs. $100,000/wk target · gross sales (product + shipping + protection)

Product Margin

$182,486 · 46.1%

after discounts, product COGS, fulfillment, fees & returns
before marketing

Contribution Margin Above goal

$102,380 · 25.9%

▲ 2.9 pts above goal vs. 23.0% target
after COGS, fulfillment, fees, returns & ad spend

Secondary metrics

Orders

4,787

payout-matched · June

AOV

$67.70

Lifetimely · blended

Blended CAC

$27.58

Lifetimely · all channels

Blended ROAS

3.66×

Lifetimely · MER

Fulfillment % of gross

7.9%

ShipBob ÷ gross sales

Discounts % of gross

22.7%

$89,705 ÷ gross sales

Truncated P&L

Revenue	% of gross	USD
Product gross sales	90.5%	$358,225
Shipping income	7.6%	$30,000
Package protection	1.9%	$7,432
Gross sales	100%	$395,656
Cost of goods & direct costs
Discounts	22.7%	−$89,705
Product cost (COGS)	19.2%	−$76,143
Fulfillment (ShipBob)	7.9%	−$31,102
CC / merchant fees	2.3%	−$9,062
Returns PARTIAL	1.8%	−$7,159
Packaging materials GAP	—	—
Bundle SKU costs PARTIAL	—	—
Product margin	46.1%	$182,486
Marketing
Ad spend (Lifetimely actual)	20.2%	−$80,106
Contribution margin (goal 23.0%)	25.9%	$102,380

Revenue flow

How gross sales becomes contribution margin

Bands sized by dollar amount · revenue in green, costs in red/orange · contribution margin (what's left over) sits at the bottom in dark green